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May 7, 2021
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Jobs outlook for the summer

Lot of intereesting stuff on the jobs data, From the Washington Post, via @Pratik earlier today:

It’s not a ‘labor shortage.’ It’s a great reassessment of work in America.

But Scott Sumner called it awhile ago

Because millions of unemployed workers in low pay service sector jobs earn more on unemployment than they did on their previous jobs, and because most of those jobs are unpleasant, employment will likely remain quite depressed all summer, before bouncing back in the fall. That’s not to say the economy won’t grow. The end of Covid makes it likely that sectors such as travel will pick up, but the quality of service will be lousy, perhaps the worst of my entire life.

Put differently, while the WaPo and Sumner are not talking strictly the same thing, there will be a lot of movement in the labor sector in the coming months. Lots.